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Archive for February 13th, 2009

Thanks to planetjan for helping me find this. Here’s a short video on the speed of growth of information technology.

Also check out Ray Kurzweil’s TED talk related to this, and the dangers of the Petabyte Age.

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“Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason  and your own common sense.”

– Siddharta Gautama Buddha

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After watching the interview in the previous post, you might find this a welcome boost. Forget about critical thinking for a moment and take a few minutes to smile:

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Gerald Celente interviewed by Marina Portnaya on Russia Today with his thoughts on what’s to come in 2009.

Some of the things he talks about:

  1. 1:16 Who is going to take up all of the retail space left vacant by the bankrupt retailers, banks, and institutions? Nobody. This will lead to a collapse of commercial real estate–at a level that will dwarf the residential housing collapse of 2008.
  2. 2:11 Unemployment is understated by the US Government. The number of people who are no longer looking for jobs because they have become discouraged at the dim prospects are not reflected in the unemployment figure. Neither are part-time workers. Celente thinks the real unemployment number is nearly double what is reported (c. 13% vs. 7%).
  3. 2:57 With reduction of retail establishments, not only will it affect commercial real estate and unemployment directly, but support industries dependent on these companies such as advertising and manufacturing will also be negative affected–creating more unemployment and real estate vacancies.
  4. 3:33 To be using economic models of the 1930s to solve the crisis is absurd since the economy of the great depression is very different from the complexity we have today: most people didn’t have homes, there was no such thing as a home-equity loan, there were no credit cards, the national debt was much smaller, the US had a very strong manufacturing base.
  5. 4:13 Crime levels in the US will rival that of third-world countries. Kidnapping and violence will be rampant similar to underdeveloped nations. We’re going to see “off with their heads” and another revolution. And he’s not exaggerating.
  6. 5:18 There’s going to be a tax revolt, as desperate people resist the attempts of the US government to tax them more to recover from the deficit brought about by the crisis.
  7. 5:37 Quoting biblically: “By their deeds you shall know them” Celente criticizes the Obama administration as hardly the “Change” it purports to be, as the economic and policy team being assembled by the adminstration are the same people on the Clinton administration.
  8. 7:25 Buy gold, it’s the only safe storehouse of value in these times. Don’t spend more than you need. Hot Jobs: Health is a Growth Industry, Conservation Engineering, Alternative Energy.
  9. 9:00 Geopolitics: tension in the middle east. if Israel attacks Iran, it will begin World War 3. It will inflame the middle east, start an oil crisis, and aggravate the economic crisis. If Obama decides to put a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe it will reignite the cold war.

Some things Celente mention have to do with critical thinking:

  • Current events form future trends. This is similar to what George Soros said in another interview we featured about how prediction of the future is always in flux, since it depends on what happens now. However, Celente is more certain of his own views based on the crisis he sees before us today.
  • When people look at trends, they color them with their own belief: they see what they hope for, what they want. It’s best to see trends as they are, without bias.
  • What got the US out of recession in the 90s was the Internet revolution. The same drive for productive capacity and intelligent solutions is what will bring us out of this crisis. Alternative energies is one sector that will be very important in the immediate and long-term future.

The question now: is he on the level, or is his own thinking colored by hysteria?

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