Posts Tagged ‘skeptical empiricism’

Former derivatives trader turned skeptical philosopher, Nassim Taleb, vents his frustration at the world financial system for allowing hindsight bias to fool them into a false sense of security which has now led to the worldwide financial crisis and recession.

Taleb criticizes economists for relying on theoretical models that have little bearing on the real-world appreciation of risk, and blames banks for throwing large amounts of capital on academics and PhDs whose economic theories were widely off the mark in anticipating the global crash.

(It’s just too bad the journalist couldn’t formulate better questions to appreciate the thinking of this guy. (Next to economists and academics, Taleb despises journalists too.)

We discussed some of Taleb’s ideas here before, notably the Platonic fallacy and fallacy of history, which are dangerous human tendencies that can lead to a grave misunderstanding of events which is exactly how he describes the current financial crisis.

Taleb is a skeptical empiricist: or one who considers historical evidence only as a PARTIAL indicator of probabilities, as opposed to naive empiricists who consider historical evidence as the complete basis for predicting future events. Skeptical empiricists like Taleb never admit to knowing the truth fully, and only fully consider evidence that DISPUTES a claim, while evidence that SUPPORTS a claim can never be fully accepted.

He was inspired by skeptical thinkers like Karl Popper whose theory of falsification we feature in this website. Popper also inspired the investment styles of other investors such as George Soros and Jim Rogers.


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